POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has published new findings suggesting that climate change could nearly triple the land affected by wildfires annually across Europe by 2100. According to the research, a 192% rise in yearly burned regions is projected if a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global warming materializes. The study follows recent significant wildfires in 2026 that impacted parts of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. Persistent hot, dry, and windy conditions are identified as the key climate factors driving these changes.
Published in Global Change Biology, the research utilized two fire models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Scientists evaluated a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The former corresponds to roughly 1.8°C of warming, while the latter approaches about 3.6°C. Socioeconomic factors were kept constant in different experiments to better understand their influence on wildfire activity.
Under the scenario of lower emissions, one model estimated about 39% more land burned each year by the century’s end. Another model indicated a potential decrease under the same conditions because it reflected human influences differently. However, under the high-emissions pathway, both models projected a substantial increase in burned areas, particularly around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, regions that historically experienced relatively few fires.
Models Confirm Emissions as a Key Driver of Fire Extent
The research highlights that fire weather and firefighting capacity are critical factors influencing future wildfire activity in Europe. Additionally, variables such as population density, changes in vegetation, and land use significantly impact outcomes, especially at regional levels. Lead researcher Maik Billing from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research explained that the study distinguishes climate-driven fire weather from human-related influences affecting fire spread.
Advancements in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression efforts could reduce burned areas by between 72% and 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. These benefits are more pronounced under the lower-emissions scenario and diminish with increased warming. Despite ongoing enhancements in fire management, approximately 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions could still see heightened fire activity under severe climate change conditions. Co-author Thomas Hickler is affiliated with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany.
Effective Fire Management Can Help Limit Wildfire Spread
The timing of these findings coincides with a particularly intense wildfire season in Europe in 2026, marked by dry conditions and extreme heat that fueled major blazes. Southern Europe experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, but fires also affected northern regions. The projections in the study extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. The researchers attribute these patterns to shifts in fire weather caused by rising temperatures and prolonged dry periods.
The study does not suggest a 192% increase as an unavoidable outcome. Instead, it presents a modeled scenario based on the high-emissions pathway and the assumptions used. The findings show that emissions reductions and enhanced fire management could significantly lower increases in burned areas. Still, even with better fire-control measures, climate change remains a major factor, with some regions expected to experience increased fire activity. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of emissions levels, fire weather, and management capacity in shaping Europe’s future wildfire landscape.