ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal production in 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the historic high reached last year. Despite the decline, the FAO notes that this total will still be the second-largest harvest on record. The latest projection is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July forecast, with the annual decrease amounting to 61.1 million tonnes—marking the most significant year-on-year drop since 2018.
Forecasted maize output for 2026 is now at 1.309 billion tonnes after weaker crop prospects led to a downward revision. Ongoing summer heatwaves and dry conditions negatively impacted yields in key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Estimates for India and Paraguay were also revised downward based on official data. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced unexpectedly strong yields, which helped offset some reductions; both countries are expected to produce well above-average maize quantities in 2026.
The world’s wheat production forecast has been increased to 810.7 million tonnes, a rise of 4.2 million tonnes from the prior estimate. This upward adjustment was driven by improved yield expectations for Canada and Morocco, each adding approximately 1.5 million tonnes. Projections for Russia and Ukraine also saw increases, while drought conditions in the European Union and the United Kingdom lowered expectations. Even with this revision, global wheat output is predicted to be 3.8% below 2025 figures and remains the second-largest crop ever recorded.
Maize setbacks pull down global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, the FAO estimates world rice production at 553.1 million tonnes (on a milled basis), reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised 2025/26 record. The latest estimate benefits from Myanmar’s recent strong yields and Sri Lanka’s better-than-expected main crop harvests. These gains help balance declines seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice planting has hit multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal utilization reaching 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a marginal increase of 0.2% compared to last season. While consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, wheat use is forecasted to decline from the elevated levels seen in the previous season. World rice consumption is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population increases and higher food demand. Additionally, feed use continues to be a significant factor for coarse grains, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Global cereal stocks remain at historically comfortable levels
At the end of 2027, world cereal stocks are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes, slightly below the previous projection by 10.7 million tonnes but still 1.8 million tonnes above initial levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the prior season. While wheat reserves are expected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, lower inventories of maize and barley have contributed to a reduced overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals worldwide during 2026/27 is predicted to reach 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite this uptick, the total remains below the record established in 2025/26. The rise is primarily driven by stronger maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. The international rice trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, with total rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 peak.