GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026, now anticipating a growth rate of 3.9 percent. This marks a significant rise from the 1.9 percent estimate provided in March. The WTO explained that stronger trade performance in the first half, adjustments in supply chains, and increased investment in artificial intelligence contributed to this upward revision. Despite major disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew 3.5 percent during the first half of 2026. The organization now expects merchandise trade to grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a significant role in merchandise trade growth during the initial half of the year. Goods enabling AI, such as semiconductors and servers, made up 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth. Exports of these products increased by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that global investment in AI infrastructure is projected to rise by at least 30 percent in 2026. The high demand for computing hardware helped support trade, even as other sectors faced disruptions from conflicts and transportation constraints.
Global supply chains adapted to pressures across key commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined by approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. During the same period, liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the global decline in crude oil to about 6 percent. Meanwhile, LNG exports worldwide only decreased by 1 percent. Container throughput globally rose by 3.9 percent through July, as trade routes shifted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-powered goods bolster global merchandise trade
This more optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for international services trade. The WTO revised downward its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Disruptions in the Middle East hampered transport and international travel, with second-quarter tourist arrivals dropping 0.8 percent. Overall, tourist numbers for the first half of the year increased by only 0.4 percent. Growth in travel-related spending also decelerated sharply between the first and second quarters.
Other service sectors outperformed despite challenges in travel and transportation. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Financial services exports also rose by 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth rate for commercial services trade volume in 2027. Additionally, it forecasts global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in the following year.
Trade growth varies significantly across regions
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal considerable disparities worldwide. The WTO predicts Asia will lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America is expected to see 5.7 percent growth, while Africa is projected at 5.6 percent. South America is forecast to grow by 3.4 percent, whereas Europe is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest contraction, with exports forecast to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also shows notable regional differences in the latest WTO outlook. Asia is projected to have a 9.5 percent rise in merchandise imports, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North America’s imports are forecast to grow by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports into the Middle East are expected to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala commented that the latest data demonstrates trade resilience but also underscores the uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions.