MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal of reaching 662 million tonnes of annual coal output by 2050, according to a newly approved industry development programme. This target forms part of the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, coal production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government authorized the plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term benchmarks for production, exports, and industry growth.
The plan presents four different pathways for the coal industry through 2050. In the primary target scenario, output is projected to hit 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, eventually reaching 662 million tonnes by 2050. The other outlined scenarios estimate lower production levels for 2050, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
In addition to production goals, the programme also sets export targets. Under the main scenario, coal exports are expected to reach 266.7 million tonnes in 2030. They are forecasted to increase to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports grew 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and international sales of coal.
Production and export objectives
The government’s programme emphasizes maintaining existing mining capacities while expanding coal resource development. It highlights a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together contributed 48.3% of national production in 2024. The goal is to increase that share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports having explored coal reserves exceeding 273 billion tonnes.
The strategy also establishes targets for coal processing and extraction methods. In 2024, the share of processed coal, excluding lignite, was 58.9%. By 2050, this figure is expected to range between 74% and 76%. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of production in 2024, with the long-term goal of increasing this share to between 82% and 85%. The document also discusses measures related to productivity, technology, safety, and environmental standards.
Coal industry plan extends until 2050
Russia will implement the programme in three phases. The first phase, ending in 2030, will focus on production growth and industry support measures. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, aims to advance coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase, from 2037 to 2050, will oversee the full execution of long-term objectives. The Energy Ministry will supervise the programme’s progress in collaboration with federal, regional authorities, and involved organizations, submitting annual reports to the Economic Development Ministry as required by the government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the updated strategy during a government meeting on September 21. This plan replaces Russia’s previous coal industry programme, which was set through 2035 and approved in 2020. Novak indicated that the new initiative projects a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect approaching 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains a scenario within the plan, not an unconditional forecast.