BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – Transport & Environment (T&E) has projected that higher fuel prices will raise EU transport costs by an estimated €53 billion in 2026. Their estimate, published on September 23, analyzes 28 weeks ending on September 6, comparing fuel expenditures during this period to the same timeframe the previous year and adjusting for inflation. Diesel was responsible for roughly €40 billion of the additional costs. This calculation considers spending on diesel and petrol related to road transport.
According to T&E, increased fuel prices added an average of €270 million daily to the EU’s road transport expenses. Out of this daily increase, about €203 million came from diesel, while petrol contributed approximately €67 million. The organization attributes the rise to tighter refined-fuel supplies caused by conflicts in the Middle East and outages at Russian refineries. These disruptions widened the disparity between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. Diesel and gasoil together constitute about 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
European Commission has also reported significant market volatility in crude oil and refined fuels, particularly for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that the EU currently faces no immediate oil supply issues. The report notes that increased EU refinery output and alternative global supplies are sufficiently meeting demand. Additionally, both commercial and emergency oil reserves remain ample. The Commission highlighted that ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to cause notable price fluctuations across global oil and petroleum markets.
Diesel Prices Impact Drivers and Logistics Companies
For individual drivers, T&E estimates that the average EU diesel car owner spent about €142 more during the period studied. As of September 14, they calculated a €30 premium on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict levels. Long-haul trucks in Germany faced an average additional weekly fuel cost of approximately €236. The analysis notes that Europe has around 6.2 million trucks on its roads. The rise in diesel prices has also affected freight carriers and other commercial fuel users.
Diesel continues to play a pivotal role in EU road transport and logistics activities. According to T&E, road transport accounted for 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption in 2024. Eurostat data show that gas and diesel oil supplied 63.2% of road transport energy that year, with motor gasoline making up 26.9%. Renewables and biofuels contributed 6.2%, while electricity represented 0.7%. In 2024, diesel and gasoline alone supplied 90.1% of the energy used for road transport.
Recent EU Data Continues to Monitor Fuel Price Trends
On September 24, the European Commission released its latest Weekly Oil Bulletin, providing updated consumer petroleum prices from EU member states. This report tracks weekly prices both including and excluding taxes, maintaining a historical record dating back to 2005. The update follows the end of the T&E study period on September 6. The European Commission gathers national price data and regularly publishes comparative analyses across member states. Its September 8 supply assessment also highlighted diesel and jet fuel as products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an approximation based on their analysis rather than an official EU figure. It estimates additional spending on road fuels during the 28-week comparison period in 2026. The report also explores the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, with diesel being the primary contributor to the projected increase. T&E advocates for measures to curb diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continue to track fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption across the bloc.